A consideration of the 2018 Cy Young races

Top 30 MLB starters

cy2018 <- p18 %>% select(2, 4, 5, 11, 6, 7, 9, 16, 23, 36) %>% 
  filter(GS > 20) %>% 
  top_n(30, gScore) %>% 
  arrange(-gScore)

kable(cy2018, format = "html", table.attr = 'width="100%"') %>% kable_styling(position = "left")

*indicates left-handed pitcher

It’s probably no surprise that deGrom comes out on top. He’s among the league leaders in innings pitched and strikeouts. Despite having only 10 wins, he has a significant gScore lead over the Nationals’ Max Scherzer, the two-time defending NL Cy Young winner. Scherzer’s 300 strikeouts are offset by deGrom’s fewer runs allowed (48 for deGrom to 66 for Scherzer) and home runs allowed (only 10 all season to Scherzer’s 23).

DeGrom’s score of 971 is the third highest total in the last four seasons, bettered only by Clayton Kershaw (1,001 in 2015) and Jake Arrieta (998 in 2015).

The surprise is in the AL results. Snell finished sixth among all MLB pitchers and third in the AL. Snell passed Sale in the final week to push him to fourth. Cleveland’s Corey Kluber, who has also won 20 games now, is fifth in the AL. The runaway AL leader in gScore is the Astros’ Justin Verlander, followed by teammate Gerrit Cole.

Many observers seemed to rate Verlander as just the third or fourth best candidate in the AL race, although appears to have changed in the final week as he’s become the solid second favourite to Snell. Verlander gets nicked for the 28 home runs he has allowed this season, the second worst mark of his career (he allowed 30 HRs in 2016). But just like 2016, Verlander leads the AL in strikeouts. And like Kluber, he’s taken the ball every five days all season and pitched deep in to games with a low hits per nine innings rate.

Voters for the Cy Young Award traditionally favour power pitchers. Since the Cy Young came into being in 1959, a pitcher has won his league’s pitching triple crown (league leader in wins, ERA and strikeouts) 13 times and has been rewarded with the Cy Young every time. The last time it happened was 2011, in both leagues: Verlander with Detroit in the AL and the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw in the NL.

For fun, here’s a table of the top 30 relievers who have made 50 or more appearances.

Top 30 relievers

rel2018 <- p18 %>% select(2, 4, 5, 10, 6, 15, 9, 16, 23, 36) %>% 
  filter(G > 50) %>% 
  top_n(30, gScore) %>% 
  arrange(-gScore)

kable(rel2018, format = "html", table.attr = 'width="100%"') %>% kable_styling(position = "left")

How does this gScore measurement work for previous seasons? If we look at the last three seasons, the gScore matches up with four the six winners. It missed the 2016 AL race, won by Boston’s Rick Porcello in a bit of a voting controversy over Verlander, and the 2015 NL vote, won by the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta in a tight three-way race with Kershaw and Dodgers teammate Zack Greinke. The tables below show the pitchers’ traditional stats along with their gScore and where they placed in the Cy Young voting.

2017 AL

cy2017AL <- p17 %>% select(2, 4, 5, 37, 6, 7, 9, 23, 11, 36) %>% 
  filter(Lg == "AL") %>% 
  top_n(10, gScore) %>% 
  arrange(-gScore)

kable(cy2017AL, format = "html", table.attr = 'width="100%"') %>% kable_styling(position = "left")

2017 NL

cy2017NL <- p17 %>% select(2, 4, 5, 37, 6, 7, 9, 23, 11, 36) %>% 
  filter(Lg == "NL") %>% 
  top_n(10, gScore) %>% 
  arrange(-gScore)

kable(cy2017NL, format = "html", table.attr = 'width="100%"') %>% kable_styling(position = "left")

2016 AL

cy2016AL <- p16 %>% select(2, 4, 5, 37, 6, 7, 9, 23, 11, 36) %>% 
  filter(Lg == "AL") %>% 
  top_n(10, gScore) %>% 
  arrange(-gScore)

kable(cy2016AL, format = "html", table.attr = 'width="100%"') %>% kable_styling(position = "left")

2016 NL

cy2016NL <- p16 %>% select(2, 4, 5, 37, 6, 7, 9, 23, 11, 36) %>% 
  filter(Lg == "NL") %>% 
  top_n(10, gScore) %>% 
  arrange(-gScore)

kable(cy2016NL, format = "html", table.attr = 'width="100%"') %>% kable_styling(position = "left")

2015 AL

cy2015AL <- p15 %>% select(2, 4, 5, 37, 6, 7, 9, 23, 11, 36) %>% 
  filter(Lg == "AL") %>% 
  top_n(10, gScore) %>% 
  arrange(-gScore)

kable(cy2015AL, format = "html", table.attr = 'width="100%"') %>% kable_styling(position = "left")

2015 NL

cy2015NL <- p15 %>% select(2, 4, 5, 37, 6, 7, 9, 23, 11, 36) %>% 
  filter(Lg == "NL") %>% 
  top_n(10, gScore) %>% 
  arrange(-gScore)

kable(cy2015NL, format = "html", table.attr = 'width="100%"') %>% kable_styling(position = "left")

It’s really amazing to consider deGrom’s 2018 gScore when compared to the last three season. Since Kershaw, Arrieta and Greinke in 2015, no one had come close to cross 900 points again.

Given that deGrom only has 10 wins, let’s look at one more historical comparison. In 2010, the year that started to orient thinking away from slavishly considering wins and losses, the Mariners’ Felix Hernandez (13-12, 2.27) won the AL Cy Young vote despite his mediocre record. If we examine the gScores in the AL for that season, he compiled 860 points, 150 more than the Angels’ Jered Weaver (13-12, 3.01) and 168 more than Verlander (18-9, 3.37). David Price (19-6, 2.72), who was seventh in gScore points that season, was the Cy Young runner-up, and CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18) was third with an gScore of only 661. Weaver, who led the league in strikeouts by one over Hernandez, finished fifth.

This application of the Game Score formula seems to do a good job of pushing forward the best candidates and correctly matched four of the last six Cy Young winners. It hews closely to my own biases so I like it, but it certainly won’t satisfy all fans. It likes power pitchers with lots of strikeouts and might not reward a groundball pitcher with fewer Ks. It completely eliminates relievers from Cy Young consideration. But that’s how I like it.

Based on the prevailing wisdom, this measurement will probably split this year’s Cy Young races, correctly predicting deGrom and missing out on Snell. You can compare this gScore with other measures like ESPN’s Cy Young predictor formula and Tango’s predictor that takes wins into account The BBWAA votes have to be in shortly after the end of the regular season. The results will be announced in November.